Future of the PC

armadillo · Aug 06, 2012, 12:57:08

I have somewhat lost touch with what businesses are using or expect to use on the desktop in the next few years. And indeed lost touch with what general public tend to have at home.

Will the PC have a future? Or will it become entirely replaced by notebooks, tablets and iphones, in both home and business?

I notice a rather worrying focus of Windows 8 on tablets and other small gizmos.

My reason for asking is that I currently use a desktop PC that I built in 2004, running Windows XP and it does everything I need and everything works and I am not at all worried by any suggestions about security of XP.

I intend to keep this running for as long as possible and I have lots of spare parts but, at some stage, I may have to build a new PC. I was hoping to avoid Windows 7 completely and go straight to a newer OS. But possibly Windows 8 will be less PC friendly than Windows 7.

I am only interested in self-build, even if a ready built one is cheaper. So will we still be able to buy the parts to build desktop PCs in two years from now? Will Windows releases still work on desktop PCs?

Or should I build a Windows 7 or Windows 8 PC now as an insurance against the complete disappearance of PC parts availability?

Polish your crystal balls, please.

Simon · Aug 06, 2012, 13:38:44

Mine is a 2007 XP self build, so I'm in the same boat. I think I would probably buy my next one, or have it built, simply because I can't be arsed to build it myself, but I'm holding on to XP as long as I can.

cavillas · Aug 06, 2012, 14:00:09

I believe that desktop PC's will be aroundfor a long time. You cna repair them and replce partsquiteeasily. I think windows 7 will outlast windows 8. I build my own systems when I need them and have gone to Windows 7which I find faster and more reliable than xp. If I do find that windows 7 becomes defunct then I will switch to a Linux distro as it will have everything I need and everything is free.

Baz · Aug 06, 2012, 15:02:27

Im about the same time scale as you Simon also with a self build XP.Does what I need but I have thought a few times about moving up.Sometimes XP looks a tad dated.In our house we have my XP, wife and son with Vista,other son with windows 7 and daughter on a Mac.

Now the one with 7 says it is good he really likes it,quicker as Alf said, looks sharper, just takes some navigating compared to XP.

So I dont know what will be next.We'll have to move on some time

zappaDPJ · Aug 06, 2012, 15:55:56

I predict the PC and laptop will be around in their current form for many years to come for one reason alone. You can't easily replace the speed of input of a mechanical keyboard or the precision of a mouse. However I do see tablets becoming far more popular, as a PC replacement for some and as a secondary device for most.

Windows 8 is far harder to predict. I think it will have a lot of appeal for those that have grown up with smart phone technology but less appeal for those of us that have used Windows XP. I think it quite likely that Windows 7 will become the new XP. I really can't predict the success of Windows 8. I'm in a position where my early adopted SSD is full to capacity and I need to upgrade it. I'm tempted to wait until Windows 8 is launched, upgrade it and perform a total re-installation because I prefer to stay current but at this time I feel I might regret it.

The only thing I'm sure about is the hard drive is now all but dead in terms of local storage.

Steve · Aug 06, 2012, 16:34:02

I think the generation brought up on smartphones, tablets and game consoles will have little use for a desktop PC although they might stretch to a laptop for serious work.

Glenn · Aug 06, 2012, 16:43:40

At work around 90% of the people there use laptops, most have no need for one as they remain locked to the desk 365/24/7.

cavillas · Aug 06, 2012, 16:50:38

Quote from: Glenn on Aug 06, 2012, 16:43:40
At work around 90% of the people there use laptops, most have no need for one as they remain locked to the desk 365/24/7.

What kind of company keeps its employees locked up like tha.

Glenn · Aug 06, 2012, 17:23:42

They are hard taskmasters.

Lance · Aug 06, 2012, 18:28:46

It's where the phase "we're letting you go" came from.

D-Dan · Aug 06, 2012, 19:28:08

At my workplace (part of a large mutinational with in excess of 10,000 employees worldwide), whilst there are a few laptops around, there will be desktops around for a long long time. The reason is simple. We use bespoke software coded in house that uses keyboard shortcuts that are not possible on a laptop or tablet. In fact, the manual takes great pains to point out that you can't use the software on anything other than a desktop machine

Steve · Aug 06, 2012, 19:46:07

I wouldn't disagree about the workplace, whether that be at home or elsewhere. Elsewhere I think it will largely disappear.

Lance · Aug 06, 2012, 21:08:32

Erm... Plug a keyboard into a laptop and that would enable the software to be used?

Lance · Aug 06, 2012, 21:10:00

Where I work there is currently a rollout of new laptops to all employees except those who have to work at a desk in the office (for technical reasons or customer service).

D-Dan · Aug 06, 2012, 22:09:10

Quote from: Lance on Aug 06, 2012, 21:08:32
Erm... Plug a keyboard into a laptop and that would enable the software to be used?

Probably, but doesn't that kinda defeat the purpose of having an easily portable laptop in the first place?

armadillo · Aug 07, 2012, 11:17:18

What an interesting collection of replies! Ease of repair and part replacement is certainly one of the advantages of PCs and I am glad to see that being recognised. One of my fears has been that the society becomes more throwaway as components become cheaper. Manufacturers could take the attitude that, if a component breaks, just throw away and replace the whole machine.

Interesting that the consensus seems to be that Windows 7 will outlast Windows 8. And that PCs will continue alongside laptops and tablets. I had not thought of that but it makes a lot of sense. It also makes sense that MS and other OS developers would want to capitalise on a growing tablet market but not abandon the PC market. Perhaps, rather than making an analogy with VHS being replaced by DVD, it is more like radio and TV, or theatre and cinema. The newer medium does not necessarily supplant the older. I had kind of fixated on "the speed of input of a mechanical keyboard or the precision of a mouse". And I assumed that would just be sacrificed in the chasing of profit from tablets. The tablet as a secondary device for PC users is a scenario I had missed completely and that is very encouraging.

I am fairly worried by the suggestion that "the hard drive is now all but dead in terms of local storage". If "local" means inside the machine, I can see that it might be replaced by SSD. But surely "local" also includes on (or under) the desk or "somewhere in the office". I cannot see hard drives going out of fashion there. For example, I use several terabytes of storage locally. I know a photographer who uses over 100 terabytes. That is never going to be held on SSD or stored on-line in the cloud. Imagine uploading 100 terabytes over ADSL. Scientific applications might use thousands of terabytes.

But certainly, I want any machine to hold at least three internal drives, though they need not be huge. I currently happily work with three internal drives of 120GB each. Those could, I guess, become SSD devices.

People being locked to their desks but still with their laptops is something I thought might be quite common. But the bespoke software using keyboard shortcuts that only work on a PC is the kind of thing I am glad to see that a multinational company needs. I do that kind of thing on my own PC - I write plenty of scripts - and I would hate to lose what those can do. Plugging in a keyboard would probably work. As it is, when I have to use my laptop, I plug a proper mouse into it.

So the consensus seems to be that PCs will stay around for the foreseeable future but tablets and other mobile devices will arise alongside. In that case, I could delay my build of a new PC. Alternatively, I could build a Windows 7 PC now, or soon, in the belief that Windows 7 will not be replaced by Windows 8.

I have a huge amount of software that runs on 32 bit Windows. Building a new machine is simple - a day or so. But installing and configuring the software takes months. Having to replace the software with something that works on a differently structured OS would be a nightmare. Some of the software is mathematical stuff which I have written and I mean things with 30,000 lines of code. I would not want to rewrite from scratch. So XP serves me well. If it did not work on Windows 7, I would be looking at running XP inside a VM. This could all take many months to set up and I would want it to last for many years. The process would be a great deal easier while I still have a fully working Windows XP machine.

zappaDPJ · Aug 07, 2012, 16:56:54

998GB SSDs are already available in 2.5 inch format and Texas memory Systems can supply a massive 10TB SSD as a rack mounted unit. However, neither currently provide a cost effective, total solution for local or remote storage but I have no doubt at all that as with all new technology, the manufacturing cost will plummet dramatically and they will quickly become the norm. I do however think it might be a while before data centres make the switch.

There's nothing to stop you from maintaining a 32 bit system for an eternity but I'd argue that at some point down the line it becomes easier to just bite the bullet and move to current technology. You also get the benefit of what the current technology has to offer e.g. SSDs, which may well not work on older hardware. My solution would be to maintain two systems, it's something I've done in the past on more than one occasion

Simon · Aug 07, 2012, 18:12:32

Sorry, what's an SSD?

Glenn · Aug 07, 2012, 18:16:04

Solid State Drive

http://www.novatech.co.uk/products/components/harddrives-internal/solidstate/128gbandabove/mz-7pc256neu.html

Simon · Aug 07, 2012, 18:26:34

Thanks.

D-Dan · Aug 07, 2012, 19:54:28

And not to be pedantic (no, honestly, did I really say that?), but a "PC" is a Personal Computer, and includes desktops, laptops, tablets, notebooks, and I dare say smart phones. Said devices may be running Windows, Linux, MacOS, iOS, Android, AmigaOS, or a proprietary operating system.

Sorry, but I hate that "PC" has become a term to describe an IBM compatible desktop running Windows. It isn't. That's just one of the many things that a PC may be.

pctech · Aug 07, 2012, 19:57:47

Mac users can't abide their precious, aluminium clad overpriced machines being referred to as PCs despite there being little to differentiate the hardware these days apart from the price.

Steve · Aug 07, 2012, 20:43:27

Can I remind you for the final time Mitch that this is a thread about the future of the desktop PC. It is not about your repeated tiresome comments about Apple products.

Simon · Aug 07, 2012, 20:47:34

And may I, also, remind you of the forum rules, Mitch. I agree with Steve, this is your final warning on this.

QuoteYou further agree that you will at no time post in a manner designed or intended to demean, humiliate or mock any other user, or member of staff of this forum. You will at all times observe "Good forum etiquette", be polite and respectful towards all members, administrators, moderators and the forum owners. You agree that you will at no time create posts/threads intended to be deliberately contentious, malicious, critical of and/or harmful to the community, its members, staff and the board owners, or that would create, foment or otherwise cause ill feeling amongst the membership.

pctech · Aug 07, 2012, 21:02:56

Ok.

Sorry that comment went a bit far.

Anyway according to this http://www.zdnet.com/microsoft-said-to-block-ability-to-boot-straight-to-desktop-in-windows-8-7000002219/ it looks like MS is going to force users to use Metro or whatever they want to call it this minute whether they want to or not.

Hmmm, think my next move will be to ReactOS or Linux.

Technical Ben · Aug 08, 2012, 00:16:25

Quote from: Steve on Aug 06, 2012, 16:34:02
I think the generation brought up on smartphones, tablets and game consoles will have little use for a desktop PC although they might stretch to a laptop for serious work.

I had a look at Ubuntu and strangely it worked near enough exactly as a Android or IOS or tablet OS. Yet, I hate not having my PC stuff at my finger tips (it's there under the layer of Linux Terminal, I just like the Windows/OSX style ease of access and toolbox settings

). What is really surprising, is, how long has Ubuntu's new GUI been out? Yet has it taken off? I don't think it has much. Andriod also only has a bit in the mini PC market. So it leaves little doubt that there is not enough demand to cut all the PC features soon. The tablets and closed garden systems will be around, but the PCs openness and customisation will still be in demand I think.

At least I hope so.

armadillo · Aug 08, 2012, 00:29:25

Quote from: zappaDPJ on Aug 07, 2012, 16:56:54
There's nothing to stop you from maintaining a 32 bit system for an eternity but I'd argue that at some point down the line it becomes easier to just bite the bullet and move to current technology. You also get the benefit of what the current technology has to offer e.g. SSDs, which may well not work on older hardware. My solution would be to maintain two systems, it's something I've done in the past on more than one occasion

I had thought about keeping two systems going and it is a distinct possibility. The bullet of converting programs I have written is too big to bite. A multi-unit program with 30000 lines of highly structured and intensely mathematical code is not somewhere I want to go again in a hurry. I wrote it in Delphi 2, with lots of underlying Pascal to do all the maths. And I have many thousands of lines of scripts written in Autohotkey.

SSDs would be no compensation for having to trawl through all that stuff again as I could spend around two years doing it!

I wonder when we will see the first major failures in SSDs. After all, CF and SD cards can fail. But the idea of a 10TB SSD bank is amusing. I guess it needs a bank full of money to buy one of those at the moment. I would still go with HDs for the roughly 6TB of external storage I currently have. But SSDs for internal OS, programs and video and photo data processing are probably already adequate and cost effective.

armadillo · Aug 08, 2012, 00:41:40

Quote from: Technical Ben on Aug 08, 2012, 00:16:25So it leaves little doubt that there is not enough demand to cut all the PC features soon. The tablets and closed garden systems will be around, but the PCs openness and customisation will still be in demand I think.

At least I hope so.

I hope so too and I hope you are right. One reason I enjoy Delphi so much is that it gives me a GUI that allows me to design a GUI application and drops down into Pascal for the mathematics. My limited brain can cope with Pascal. It can be done in Visual Studio with C++ but it is serious effort (and money) to learn that. There is also Lazarus, which works in Linux as well as Windows. But I want to avoid incessantly rewriting things I have already done, with ever more difficult-to-understand code and interfaces. The PC is a tool that does not get in the way. Familiarity means I can find my way around it and put my effort into the mathematics rather than fighting an OS or hardware interface.

I would have no objection to using a tablet to backup my photos while out on a field trip (if tablets can do that, they would be rather useful). But if I am writing 30000 lines of graphics based mathematics, I am not going to be using a tablet for it.

Lance · Aug 08, 2012, 01:04:03

I use my iPad to backup pictures from my camera when out and about for a few days or more. I can also upload from my iPad to either Dropbox or my own FTP server should I need too.

D-Dan · Aug 08, 2012, 01:25:09

Quote from: pctech on Aug 07, 2012, 21:02:56
Hmmm, think my next move will be to ReactOS or Linux.

I honestly (Linux) won't try (Linux) to influence (Linux) your decision (Linux).

you could give Linux a try.

D-Dan · Aug 08, 2012, 01:29:21

Quote from: armadillo on Aug 08, 2012, 00:41:40
I would have no objection to using a tablet to backup my photos while out on a field trip (if tablets can do that, they would be rather useful). But if I am writing 30000 lines of graphics based mathematics, I am not going to be using a tablet for it.

Use something like dropbox (or one of the alternatives) - I have mine set up to make a local copy of new files, so double redundancy built in. A copy in the cloud and a copy on my home machine. Having said that, I use dropbox so that clients can get documents to me. A local copy is a must.

armadillo · Aug 08, 2012, 09:55:00

Quote from: Lance on Aug 08, 2012, 01:04:03
I use my iPad to backup pictures from my camera when out and about for a few days or more. I can also upload from my iPad to either Dropbox or my own FTP server should I need too.

Quote from: D-Dan on Aug 08, 2012, 01:29:21
Use something like dropbox (or one of the alternatives) - I have mine set up to make a local copy of new files, so double redundancy built in. A copy in the cloud and a copy on my home machine. Having said that, I use dropbox so that clients can get documents to me. A local copy is a must.

I have only ever used laptop + DVD burner. Is dropbox via tablet or iphone a feasible method for 4GB to 8GB per day?

Steve · Aug 08, 2012, 10:54:56

I think you'd need FTTC for those sort of uploads.

Technical Ben · Aug 08, 2012, 16:37:34

Lol. Yep, I've seen DVDs get filled with just about 100 or less high res photos (that's about 40mb per image?). Not needed to pass around to friends (the ones that sent the DVD to me did not re-code the images in jpg

so it was raw from the camera lol) but it is if your doing professional stuff, as jpg artifacts can show when your zooming in etc.

armadillo, sounds like Java/web or something portable is best these days. No worries on migrating then.

armadillo · Aug 08, 2012, 23:52:18

Quote from: Steve on Aug 08, 2012, 10:54:56
I think you'd need FTTC for those sort of uploads.

Looks like I had better stick with DVDs then

armadillo · Aug 08, 2012, 23:58:26

That is right Ben. I shoot raw at 25MB per image. Came back from Cornwall with a stack of DVDs. I would probably be there for the rest of my life if I tried to upload them.

Quote from: Technical Ben on Aug 08, 2012, 16:37:34
armadillo, sounds like Java/web or something portable is best these days. No worries on migrating then.

I am a bear of little brain. Can you explain that one to me as I am not sure to what problem this is the solution or exactly what you mean

Is it my original thread subject of life of the PC or is it backing up photos?

Technical Ben · Aug 14, 2012, 22:07:29

PS, can you not risk Tiff compression?

talos · Aug 15, 2012, 07:35:25

We have a desktop, laptop, tablet and smartphone, what gets the most use ? the desktop, it's booted up first thing in the morning and is in use by someone until the evening.
I dont think any of these new innovations will ever replace it, it may evolve over time, but not disappear completely IMHO