Why are PC sales down? Moore's law

[Clive]

While rumors of the PC's demise are greatly exaggerated—an industry that moved more than 350 million units in 2012 is not "dead"—computers undoubtedly aren't selling as quickly as they once did. Analysts forecast PC sales to far exceed tablet sales for the foreseeable future, but the growth rate for PC sales has utterly and completely flatlined.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2030005/why-moores-law-not-mobility-is-killing-the-pc.html

[Steve]

I would I agree that the machine we bought 4 years ago is perfectly quick enough for our uses.

[cavillas]

Probably because not so much disposable income for many these days.

[Clive]

My six year old Acer desktop was perfectly fine for me until the hard disk broke down.  I had a new one fitted but the machine was absolutely useless because it ran so slow.  After suffering it for a year I ditched it and bought a laptop.

[.Griff.]

How do they define PC sales? I couldn't see it anywhere in the article. I assume they mean sales of systems by OEM manufacturers?!? If so they it's hardly surprising those sales have fallen.

I can think of 25+ people I speak to on a daily basis that are PC users and not one of them purchased a "system" from a retailer.

Certainly in the sector I'm involved in PC's are forging ahead.

[Technical Ben]

A phone/tab is practically a PC now. If they mean component swappable PCs, well people already have one, or have a phone.

[karvala]

I don't think it's Moore's law per se, I think it's the perception (in some cases based on previous experience, and in others on their knowledge of computing) that even a much faster CPU does not equal a significantly faster PC experience.  The limiting factor in performance for 90% of the time is the hard drive, and regardless of all the silly headline SATA burst throughput increases, the basic spin technology has hardly changed in 15 years, and mechanical hard drives are now by far the slowest part of the system, and have been for a good number of years.  Until SSD prices come down and capacities go up, most people are going to think it's pointless buying a shiny new jet engine to stick on the back of their Skoda.

When I built my first PC, I upgraded practically every part within two years to accommodate faster FSB, more than double CPU clock speed, faster memory speed, faster PATA transfer speed, faster drive spin speed, faster graphics chips and graphics ports, faster peripheral interfaces.  Now you're lucky if you get even half of those significantly improved every five years.  I built my current machine in 2008, and although I sometimes need to do intensive number crunching, for the vast majority of the time it is still plenty fast enough for what I need.  Why would I spend another £600+ upgrading core components for a barely noticeable improvement?  It's not because the CPU wouldn't be substantially faster, it's because the other parts wouldn't, and in particular the hard drive.

[Niall]

How do they define PC sales? I couldn't see it anywhere in the article. I assume they mean sales of systems by OEM manufacturers?!? If so they it's hardly surprising those sales have fallen.

I can think of 25+ people I speak to on a daily basis that are PC users and not one of them purchased a "system" from a retailer.

Certainly in the sector I'm involved in PC's are forging ahead.

In 1999 I bought my first system from 'Time', for £2700. A p3 600, which was the second from top CPU at the time. This gave me a platform to learn about the physical side of PCs over the years, and slowly upgraded parts. 56k modem, sound card, graphics card. When the motherboard became the limitation I learned how to build my own. Luckily I had a friend who built them at the time, and he helped me out once. That's when I realised how easy they are to build; it's literally plug and play (the DVD install disk ).

I always recommend people build their own PCs, but if you're squeamish about the whole thing, you can get a friend to help if you have one, or buy a pre built system from Scan or the like. When you slowly upgrade parts, it's easy to see how it's done and if you have a smart phone, if something goes wrong you have the ability to search the solution. Back in my start up day I had to phone people to scour their tiny minds for knowledge

Once you've got your key components of an overall system like the case, monitor, keyboard and mouse, it's really a simple case of upgrading bits as you need to. That is why sales have flatlined of PC systems, but it's combined with tablets, laptops and smartphones. Some people are happy with just a tablet, or just a smartphone. You've also got the big uptake of consoles in recent years. That being said, consoles are now getting to the point where they are upgrading to PC levels, like the PS4 and new xbox are going to be similar systems using AMD and ATi graphics, which is apparently going to be making game ports from PC to PS4 an option, rather than the other way. IF they do actually do it this way, this will start pushing PCs more as there will be an active increase in powerful PCs being needed for high end number crunching and/or graphics.

My current PC hasn't needed an upgrade for a long while now. In previous years my CPU would have already started causing slowdown in games. Currently I'm playing Crysis 3 at max settings on my hex core AMD Phenom II 1100T (black edition) and 16gb ram with a 560ti MSI Nvidia card. I'd say that looking at new games coming out this year, it's going to be at least another year before I need to upgrade, but possibly the card may need an upgrade in about 6 months if something new happens with the graphics side of things. Looking at future catalogues I honestly can't see any need to spend money, but as I mention, if consoles start looking more like PCs, there will be more improvements in PCs over the next 2-3 years.

[pctech]

When I last went into our local PC World shortly before it closed and became a B&M store I looked at the HP systems there and it was actually cheaper to buy from Scan than buy prebuilt

[Gary]

Last PC I had was a Voodoo Rage, great machine, but I dont need that kind of power any more, and with more household gadgets being connected now my iMac is not even used as much, my tablet does pretty much all I need for browsing social media email and word processing, apps are just like programs and should be seen as such. People are also not upgrading because of cash flow too, and unless you need a tower for gaming there ain't much point in keep updating let alone building some of those beautiful boutique machines of 5 years back. If it works keep it going seems to be the motto for many I know these days.

[Technical Ben]

An "iMac" is a PC.
But I think I know what you mean. It's just Apple provide a nice service along with the iMac. I wish PCWorld/MS did too.
It would also give some competition for Apple, to drive down prices (as reasonable, no one needs "profit" that site around doing nothing, so why not give a saving to the customer ).

[Gary]

An "iMac" is a PC.

Indeed it is, but I was distinguishing between tower and AIO really. Apples service is second to none, I have had some amazing help from them, and all the Findus Lasagne sayers (neigh) really have not seen how far Apple will go to help out their end users. Saying that I'm glad I have not got a 2012/13 iMac. The new Sony Xperia Z Android handset costs as much as an iPhone now, so prices are closing. My Voodoo Rage was about £3000 back then for an XP pro boutique machine, and was gorgeous, but the motherboard went kaput, then the Enermax power supply went, but at that time I liked fiddling. Now I just don't need that much power or hassle, I have a quad core PC  I don't use so much and a tablet that keeps me happy.

It's nice not to have to worry about driver clashes, defragging and running cleaning tools, and wondering why some AV products act more like viruses than the viruses do. I may change to said Sony handset as it works well on the iMac and can transfer iPhoto and iTunes stuff over easily to the phone with Sony's software. Equally the iPhone works and I really am invested now. At the end of the day though you cant beat turning the whole lot off going out and enjoying the view and remembering when we could all make arrangements to meet up  and keep appointments without a Chinese made quad core powered battery eating monster in our pockets. (we still don't need quad core phones really, that's just for bragging rights and even that is getting a tad boring these days.)

[Steve]

Sony software that works - that's a novelty I'm not used to although I've not used their products for quite awhile.

[Glenn]

The HTC One X that I was playing with at work yesterday is an impressive handset.

[Gary]

Sony software that works - that's a novelty I'm not used to although I've not used their products for quite awhile.

The Xperia Link works really well, Steve. Sony have really upped the anti with the 2013 handsets, a friend of mine who I persuaded to go mac dumped his iPhone and got the Sony, its a gorgeous handset, and with Xperia Link you can transfer software from as i said iPhoto and iTunes straight to the phone, or memory card. Makes the iPhone look very very tired I must say. The Days of Sony Ericsson software suites is long gone. He has all his music and selected photos on the handset. £515 from Amazon.

[Gary]

The HTC One X that I was playing with at work yesterday is an impressive handset.

Have you seen the HTC One for 2013? That looks nice in the images so far, stereo speakers aluminium casing, and a 4MP camera but with a bigger sensor so the theory is you get better pictures than say a 8MP camera with a small sensor. The only thing that puts me off HTC is how long they support their handsets for new versions of Android.

[Glenn]

Yep, I was playing with one at work (a mobile network company) on Friday morning, the sound out of the handset is awesome, by far the best I have heard from a phone.

[Simon]

The Xperia Link works really well, Steve. Sony have really upped the anti with the 2013 handsets, a friend of mine who I persuaded to go mac dumped his iPhone and got the Sony, its a gorgeous handset, and with Xperia Link you can transfer software from as i said iPhoto and iTunes straight to the phone, or memory card. Makes the iPhone look very very tired I must say. The Days of Sony Ericsson software suites is long gone. He has all his music and selected photos on the handset. £515 from Amazon.

Damn!  I was hoping not to be tempted!   

[Gary]

Damn!  I was hoping not to be tempted!   

You know you want to 

[Simon]

I might be more tempted if adapters were available to connect to iPhone speaker docks (I know you can connect with a cable, but I don't want that).  To buy an incompatible device would mean I'd then need separate devices for music.

[Gary]

I might be more tempted if adapters were available to connect to iPhone speaker docks (I know you can connect with a cable, but I don't want that).  To buy an incompatible device would mean I'd then need separate devices for music.

I use bluetooth for that, like in the car, wireless speakers are much easier.

[Simon]

I use bluetooth for that, like in the car, wireless speakers are much easier.

Yeah, the Sony (ironically) docks I have aren't bluetooth, so that isn't an option.

[Gary]

Yeah, the Sony (ironically) docks I have aren't bluetooth, so that isn't an option.

Thats the problem with getting invested in a platform...cant see the 5S being anything special this year tbh. 

[Simon]

Possibly not, but tbh, the 4S does all that I want it to do, and I can't really think of anything additional that the Sony could perform, that I desperately need.  It's just the curiosity factor I find hard to resist, but I can also think of better things to spend £500 on right now.

[pctech]

Anyone have an experience of the Samsung Galaxy Ace 2?